Electric power generation expansion planning: Robust optimization considering climate change

Shuya Li, David W. Coit, Saltuk Selcuklu, Frank A. Felder

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This research investigates electric power system expansion considering climate change. Now and in the future, climate change is and will be affecting new power plant investment decisions and electricity generation system in more uncertain ways. The power system needs to be more reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly when exposed to higher temperature, less precipitation and more intense and frequent extreme events. Traditional modeling is not sufficient to incorporate climate change effects and uncertainty. In this paper, the uncertainty of climate change is taken into consideration. The input variables and system parameters that are impacted by climate are identified and quantified. Different climate scenarios are used with corresponding input profile to represent all the possible outcomes of a future climate instead of continuous probability distribution. A robust electric power Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model minimizing the expected total cost under all scenarios is formulated and solved to find the optimal result. Therefore, a good compromise solution that is nearly optimal for all scenarios is chosen to avoid the possible risk brought by a poor decision that is only optimal for one particular scenario.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014
PublisherInstitute of Industrial Engineers
Pages1049-1058
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780983762430
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2014
EventIIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014 - Montreal, Canada
Duration: May 31 2014Jun 3 2014

Publication series

NameIIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014

Other

OtherIIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014
CountryCanada
CityMontreal
Period5/31/146/3/14

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Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Generation expansion planning
  • Linear programming
  • Robust optimization
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
  • Control and Systems Engineering

Cite this

Li, S., Coit, D. W., Selcuklu, S., & Felder, F. A. (2014). Electric power generation expansion planning: Robust optimization considering climate change. In IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014 (pp. 1049-1058). (IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014). Institute of Industrial Engineers.