Abstract
This research investigates electric power system expansion considering climate change. Now and in the future, climate change is and will be affecting new power plant investment decisions and electricity generation system in more uncertain ways. The power system needs to be more reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly when exposed to higher temperature, less precipitation and more intense and frequent extreme events. Traditional modeling is not sufficient to incorporate climate change effects and uncertainty. In this paper, the uncertainty of climate change is taken into consideration. The input variables and system parameters that are impacted by climate are identified and quantified. Different climate scenarios are used with corresponding input profile to represent all the possible outcomes of a future climate instead of continuous probability distribution. A robust electric power Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model minimizing the expected total cost under all scenarios is formulated and solved to find the optimal result. Therefore, a good compromise solution that is nearly optimal for all scenarios is chosen to avoid the possible risk brought by a poor decision that is only optimal for one particular scenario.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014 |
| Publisher | Institute of Industrial Engineers |
| Pages | 1049-1058 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9780983762430 |
| Publication status | Published - 2014 |
| Event | IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014 - Montreal, Canada Duration: May 31 2014 → Jun 3 2014 |
Other
| Other | IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014 |
|---|---|
| Country | Canada |
| City | Montreal |
| Period | 5/31/14 → 6/3/14 |
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Keywords
- Climate change
- Generation expansion planning
- Linear programming
- Robust optimization
- Uncertainty
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
- Control and Systems Engineering
Cite this
Electric power generation expansion planning : Robust optimization considering climate change. / Li, Shuya; Coit, David W.; Selcuklu, Saltuk; Felder, Frank.
IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014. Institute of Industrial Engineers, 2014. p. 1049-1058.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Electric power generation expansion planning
T2 - Robust optimization considering climate change
AU - Li, Shuya
AU - Coit, David W.
AU - Selcuklu, Saltuk
AU - Felder, Frank
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - This research investigates electric power system expansion considering climate change. Now and in the future, climate change is and will be affecting new power plant investment decisions and electricity generation system in more uncertain ways. The power system needs to be more reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly when exposed to higher temperature, less precipitation and more intense and frequent extreme events. Traditional modeling is not sufficient to incorporate climate change effects and uncertainty. In this paper, the uncertainty of climate change is taken into consideration. The input variables and system parameters that are impacted by climate are identified and quantified. Different climate scenarios are used with corresponding input profile to represent all the possible outcomes of a future climate instead of continuous probability distribution. A robust electric power Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model minimizing the expected total cost under all scenarios is formulated and solved to find the optimal result. Therefore, a good compromise solution that is nearly optimal for all scenarios is chosen to avoid the possible risk brought by a poor decision that is only optimal for one particular scenario.
AB - This research investigates electric power system expansion considering climate change. Now and in the future, climate change is and will be affecting new power plant investment decisions and electricity generation system in more uncertain ways. The power system needs to be more reliable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly when exposed to higher temperature, less precipitation and more intense and frequent extreme events. Traditional modeling is not sufficient to incorporate climate change effects and uncertainty. In this paper, the uncertainty of climate change is taken into consideration. The input variables and system parameters that are impacted by climate are identified and quantified. Different climate scenarios are used with corresponding input profile to represent all the possible outcomes of a future climate instead of continuous probability distribution. A robust electric power Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model minimizing the expected total cost under all scenarios is formulated and solved to find the optimal result. Therefore, a good compromise solution that is nearly optimal for all scenarios is chosen to avoid the possible risk brought by a poor decision that is only optimal for one particular scenario.
KW - Climate change
KW - Generation expansion planning
KW - Linear programming
KW - Robust optimization
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84910066764&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84910066764&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84910066764
SN - 9780983762430
SP - 1049
EP - 1058
BT - IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2014
PB - Institute of Industrial Engineers
ER -